Every racing expert has a 2013 Cox Plate tip at this time of year but picking the Cox Plate winner has been very difficult in the past few years; with only two of the past ten favourites, Makybe Diva (2005) and So You Think (2010), going on to win the race.
Super Cool ticks a number of the boxes for a Cox Plate winner heading into the race at Moonee Valley tomorrow. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia
Our team of racing experts have analysed every possible Cox Plate factor that you could think of to come up with our 2013 Cox Plate tips that punters can use no matter what way they want to make their selections.
Favourites
As we said above favourites have really struggled in the Cox Plate in the past decade and it has taken genuine equine superstars in Makybe Diva and So You Think to avoid this curse.
Many would argue that 2013 Cox Plate favourite It’s A Dundeel is an equine superstar in his own rights but the fact remains that six of the last ten Cox Plate winners have started at double figure odds, which is clearly good news for punters looking for a bit of value.
2013 Cox Plate Tip: Green Moon ($17) from Happy Trails ($12) and Foreteller ($26)
Silk Colours
Choosing the winner of the Cox Plate by analyzing the colour of jockey silks is a time-honored habit of many punters right around Australia but unfortunately in recent years there has been no clear trend.
The dominance of So You Think and Makybe Diva heavily influence this analysis but in our research we did find that jockeys wearing silks that contain checks have performed strongly in the Cox Plate in recent years as have riders whose silks feature a number of different colours.
2013 Cox Plate Tip: Puissance De Lune ($5) from Happy Trails ($12) and Shamus Award ($21)
Barriers
Everybody remembers the controversy surrounding Gai Waterhouse’s selection of an outside gate for More Joyous before last year’s race but recent history shows that starting barriers have not been that important in the Cox Plate.
Barrier eight, twelve and fourteen are the only barriers that haven’t housed the winner in the last thirty years, bad news for Foreteller, It’s A Dundeel and Fiorente, while barrier six (five winners), barrier seven (four winners) and barrier 11 (four winners) have provided more than a third of the Cox Plate winners in the last thirty years.
2013 Cox Plate Tip: Rekindled Interest ($41) from Puissance De Lune ($5) and Green Moon ($17)
Age
There is plenty of history against It’s A Dundeel in the Cox Plate on Saturday but one thing that is in his favor is his age.
Four-year-olds have won the Cox Plate on 26 occasions, including the last three editions of the race, and along with Super Cool, It’s A Dundeel is the only four-year-old in the race.
2013 Cox Plate Tip: It’s A Dundeel ($4.20) from Super Cool ($21) and Puissance De Lune ($5)
Distance
The majority of the 2013 Cox Plate field has previously raced over the testing 2040 meters of the Cox Plate; with three-year-olds Long John and Shamus Award the only horses that will be stepping up in distance for the first time.
Green Moon, Happy Trails, Fiorente, Foreteller, Puissance De Lune, Mull of Killough and It’s A Dundeel have all been successful at this distance, while Super Cool and Rekindled Interest have been victorious at the track and distance.
2013 Cox Plate Tip: Super Cool ($21) from Rekindled Interest ($41) and Green Moon ($17)
Lead-Up Race
The Group 1 Caulfield Stakes is generally considered the key lead-up race to the Cox Plate but Atlantic Jewel scared away the majority of the field from this year’s edition of the race so Foreteller and Super Cool are the only horses in the Cox Plate field backing up from the Group 1 event.
El Segundo is the only Cox Plate winner in the last decade who had his last start in the Turnbull Stakes and no horse in the last thirty years has won the Cox Plate without having a previous race start in October – yet another historical fact that goes against It’s A Dundeel.
Three-year-olds have a fair record in the Cox Plate but Caulfield Guineas winner don’t and Long John will be the first horse to complete the Caulfield Guineas/Cox Plate double since Red Anchor in 1984 if he is successful tomorrow.
2013 Cox Plate Tip: Foreteller ($26) from Super Cool ($21) and Happy Trails ($12)
Jockeys
Glen Boss has been the leading Cox Plate jockey in the last decade, winning the race on three occasions, but will miss the 2013 edition of the race due to suspension – as will Damien Oliver and Nash Rawiller who were both in line to ride Fiorente.
Craig Williams is the only jockey in the field who has won the Cox Plate on two previous occasions and Steven Arnold and Michael Rodd have also been victorious in the Australasian Weight-For-Age Championship.
2013 Cox Plate Tip: Side Glance ($51) from Mull Of Killough ( $34) and Masked Marvel ($31)
Trainers
Mark Kavanagh lost Atlantic Jewel earlier in the week but still has Super Cool in the 2013 Cox Plate and is the only trainer with a horse in this year’s race that has previously won the Cox Plate.
Fiorente will be Gai Waterhouse’s 18th Cox Plate runner but she is still chasing her first victory although her horses have filled out the placings on four occasions.
2013 Cox Plate Tip: Super Cool ($21) from Fiorente ($6.50) and Seville ($51)
Overall 2013 Cox Plate Tip
Super Cool has not received much support in 2013 Cox Plate betting markets but based on the history and statistics of the race he is the horse to beat from popular grey Puissance De Lune and the always underrated Happy Trails.
