Ratings expert Daniel O’Sullivan has Disposition on top of his 2015 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes tips, but he believes that Under The Louvre and Fast ‘N’ Rocking are the two horses that represent value in the Group 1 event at Caulfield tomorrow.
Under The Louvre has been the best-backed runner in the 2015 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Photo by: Adrienne Bicknell
Under The Louvre showed that he was capable of being competitive at the highest level of racing when he finished in the placings in both the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) and Group 1 The Goodwood (1200m) during his autumn campaign and he hit the line strongly to finish second behind Churchill Dancer in the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m) at Flemington on September 12.
The Excellent Art entire has been a clear market mover in 2015 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes betting market, but O’Sullivan told RSN that the five-year-old still represents good value at his current odds.
“Under The Louvre’s early price was massive overs and he is getting into his right price now,” O’Sullivan said.
“He was very good second-up in a strong race behind Churchill Dancer and he has some really strong consistent figures in this sort of high pressure race, which could see him closing off over the top of him.”
Fast ‘N’ Rocking failed to record a race win during his autumn campaign, but he produced a string of consistent performances at Group level and he made up plenty of ground late in both the Listed Regal Roller Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield on August 15 and the Listed The Cup Club Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley on September 5.
O’Sullivan said that Fast ‘N’ Rocking has not had either of his races run to suit thus far this preparation and he believes that the son of Fastnet Rock is capable of recording an upset Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes victory at big odds.
“One long-shot that I will throw in there is Fast ‘N’ Rocking,” O’Sullivan said.
“At 20/1 he is in this race with a much better chance than that price suggests.
“Last start behind Fell Swoop he got a mile back from that wide draw and it was a really muddling run race and he wasn’t suited at all, but he closed off with the best figures in the race to show that he is going particularly well this preparation.
“If you are looking for a longshot in the race he is the one to go with.”
Disposition stamped himself as a genuine Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes contender when he returned to the races with a win at Flemington on September 12 and O’Sullivan believes that the Reset gelding is worthy of his place on top of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes betting market with Ladbrokes, but he is not sure there is much of an edge at his current quote.
“Disposition deserves to be on top,” O’Sullivan said.
“It was a good solid rating win first-up and it was a perfect platform for him to progress second-up towards something like his peak, which is going to be at the mark that should win this race.
“The price at around that $3.50 is borderline, but I wouldn’t to be taking much shorter than that because one of the challenges that Damien Oliver will have is trying to maintain a two wide position here or at least trying to get off the fence very early.
“With horses like Charmed Harmony crossing him he faces the prospect of being locked away on the fence when those leaders really start to feel the effect of that fast pace.
“Races are run by such a narrow margin and even just being held-up by five or six strides trying to get clear can be the difference between winning or losing.”
Disposition is currently available at 2015 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes odds of $3.80 with Ladbrokes and he is a clear favourite from Under The Louvre ($5.50), while Fast ‘N’ Rocking is priced at $21 to claim a maiden win at Group 1 level.
