Melbourne weather to play a huge part in Melbourne Cup chances

Melbourne’s unpredictable weather will once again play a huge part in the chances of many horses in the 2012 Group 1 $6m Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington on Tuesday.


Americain has gate 12 for the Melbourne Cup. Photo by: Taron Clarke

Rain has been forecast for Melbourne on Tuesday and the news has been well received by the majority of owners and trainers, especially owner Gerry Ryan who has favourite Americain looking to win his second Melbourne Cup after winning two years ago on a slow track.

“The horse is in great condition. It’s the most confident I’ve ever been. We’re going to be very competitive and someone told me it going to be 50mm dropped on the track that day,” Ryan said.

“Either way the horse can run on any condition, he proved that at Caulfield, so let’s give it our best shot.”

Americain fared reasonably at the barrier draw coming up with gate twelve and with Damien Oliver replacing French jockey Gerald Mosse, Ryan feels he has the combination to secure another Melbourne Cup.

“We looked at it and we looked at every way that Gerald has ridden the horse, you can’t be three wide, 58 on your back and especially this year’s field has been the best he’s ever run in. We need to have every one per cent up our sleeve and the one per cents make a hundred per cent,” Ryan said.

“The depth is fantastic, we might be favourite with the bookies but there’s a lot of competition and hopefully we’ve got the best horse on the day.”

Another overseas visitor would appreciate a bit of give in the ground is Goldolphin trainer Saeed Bin Suroor who has Cavalryman jumping out of gate six with top international jockey Frankie Dettori having his last ride for the stable.

“I think good to soft will be good,” Bin Suroor said.

“Frankie rides for us for the last eighteen years, has done a great job for us and wish him good luck in the future.”

Trainer Mick Kent is one local hoping for a wet track for his import Tac De Boistron who produced his best form on rain affected surfaces.

“I reckon he can run well, but to figure in the finish he needs it wet,” Kent said.

Tac De Boistron only beat one runner home when sixth to Gatewood in the Group 3 $300,000 Centrebet Geelong Cup (2400m) at Geelong on October 24 but Kent is expecting a vast improvement on Tuesday.

“The horse is really good, I’m really pleased with how he’s done since Geelong,” Kent said

“He’s put weight on, he’s thrived. His coat has come right.”

Americain has retained favouritism after the barrier draw and is $5 to win his second Melbourne Cup while Dunaden is next in line at $7 to make it back to back Cup wins.

The Luca Cumani trained Mount Athos is the next in order at $8.50 with last year’s runner-up Red Cadeaux at $10.

Cavalryman is a $41 chance with Tac De Boistron who will no doubt shorten up if the predicted rain arrives at Flemington on Tuesday.

About The Author

Mark Mazzaglia

Mark is a passionate journalist with a life-time involvement in the racing industry. He spent many years as an analyst and form expert at the Courier Mail and also has hands-on experience working with some of Queensland’s top trainers.