Order Of The Sun is on top of the 2014 South Australian Derby tips for leading Australian form analyst Adam Blencowe and he is confident that the Gai Waterhouse-trained galloper is the horse to beat in the Group 1 event at Morphettville on Saturday.
Order Of The Sun is the 2014 South Australian Derby tip of Australian Timeform analyst Adam Blencowe. Photo by: Steve Hart
Order Of The Sun was thrown in the deep end by Waterhouse during the 2014 Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival and he was far from disgraced when seventh behind Boban in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) and stamped himself as a leading contender for the South Australian Derby with a dominant win in the Listed VRC St Leger (2800m) at Flemington on April 25.
Blencowe told RSN this morning that he believes that form is good enough to win the South Australian Derby and is of the opinion that he deserves to be a clear favourite for the race.
“Order Of The Sun comes out on top,” Blencowe said.
“I think that his St. Leger win and even his close up effort there behind Boban is good is enough to win most South Australian Derby’s and that has got him as the form pick of the race.”
One outside that Blencowe thinks represents good value at his current quote is Surge Ahead, who beat home just a single runner in the Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m) at Royal Randwick on April 12.
Blencowe is happy to forgive the performance of Surge Ahead in the Australian Derby and believes that is over the correct quote at his South Australian Derby odds of $26, but believes that he may need a dry track to perform at his best.
“I thought that Surge Ahead was one that came up over the odds as a less likely winning chance,” Blencowe said.
“Wet track probably puts him out of commission, but his form through the Alistair Clarke there actually tied in pretty well and suggested that he was a chance and his Australian Guineas run was terrific as well.
“He is forgivable for his runs in Sydney and we know that horses coming from the Australian Derby have a really good record in recent years.
“He would want it on the dry side.”
Scratchy Bottom has been well-backed in 2014 South Australian Derby betting markets after she flew home late to finish third behind May’s Dream in the Group 1 Australasian Oaks (2000m) at Morphettville last weekend, but Blencowe said that he is happy to leave the daughter of Sebring out of his selections.
“Scratchy Bottom has got the form there, but barrier one might not be ideal for her and I don’t think that her profile really fits well with the big gap into last time and now backing up hard and up 500 metres,” Blencowe said.
“I am thinking that I will steer my numbers away from her and try and set up a bet elsewhere.”
Order Of The Sun ($4) remains a narrow favourite in 2014 South Australian Derby betting markets from Bring Something ($4.80), Scratchy Bottom ($7) and Gamblin’ Guru ($9).
